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After a healthy drop in fuel prices in October 2024, the cost of diesel and petrol looks set to rise slightly in November. According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), motorists can expect to pay more at the pump from Wednesday, 6 November, although exact figures are yet to be determined.
Reasons for the increase include developments in the rand/US dollar exchange rate and global oil prices. Let’s take a look at what we know so far based on information provided by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.
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According to Business Tech, recent drops in fuel prices can be attributed to the global oil price. However, so far in October, the oil price has been significantly more volatile than in September. That means that early in October, analysts projected that fuel prices would “recover” by as much as 80 cents per litre, representing a significant decrease in fuel prices.
As of 16 October, however, we are looking at an “under-recovery” figure of 14 cents per litre, representing a price increase in November.
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Israel continues to threaten the stability of the Middle East, which remains a major source of crude oil. Early in October, analysts feared that Israel would target Iran’s oil supplies, but ultimately, prices fell after reports that it would avoid causing a major supply disruption.
A subsequent 2% fall in Brent crude following a briefing by China’s Finance Ministry. According to Bloomberg, China remains the world’s largest crude oil importer, but the briefing failed to outline new incentives to increase consumption, suggesting “weakening demand growth”.
Both of these situations have caused oil prices to rise and fall multiple times in October. Business Tech cites economists and warns that these dramatic fluctuations could continue throughout the month.
At the same time, while the rand looked set to break the R17.00 per dollar mark, it then weakened to R17.60 per US dollar earlier this month. Despite this, it remains stronger relative to September, meaning the upcoming fuel price increase could have been worse. However, with two weeks left in October, there is still a chance that the rand will hit R18.00 per US dollar, bringing with it a more significant price increase.
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As it stands, these are the anticipated changes to various fuel prices in South Africa, effective from Wednesday, 6 November 2024:
This data was sourced from the CEF Daily Basic Fuel Price as of 14 October 2024. Please note that these insights are not predictive and are subject to change. Furthermore, they do not take into account levy adjustments or retail margin adjustments.
However, if these figures hold true for November, this is what you can expect to pay at the fuel pump:
NOTE: Diesel prices at the pumps may differ. These are wholesale figures.
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As it stands, fuel prices are set to increase by a few cents per litre next month. However, given the volatility of global oil prices and the rand/US dollar exchange rate, it remains difficult to predict exactly what we will pay at the pumps come Wednesday 6 November.
Keep an eye on our Drive South Africa Fuel Cost Calculator to stay up to date with all local fuel prices. Our useful tool is updated each month and helps thousands of drivers to plan their routes and fuel expenses across the country. We’ll also update you as soon as November fuel prices are confirmed!